Trump administration to release key inflation data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release the Consumer Price Index data, important for calculating Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, despite the government shutdown.
Trump administration to release CPI data
Data crucial for Social Security adjustments
Shutdown delayed data collection
Staff called back to work as needed
Last month's jobs report was not released
COLA based on inflation from Q3
74 million people receive Social Security
Previous adjustment was 2.5%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is recalling some staff from furlough to complete the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report despite the ongoing government shutdown, according to multiple official sources and news reports. The shutdown, which began on October 1, had caused almost all BLS operations to pause except for one full-time employee working under contingency plans. The recall reflects the critical importance of the September CPI data for policy and social programs.[1][2][3][4]
CPI Report delayed inflation data and delayed inflation data
The September CPI, originally slated for release on October 15, is unlikely to meet that deadline due to the shutdown but is expected before November 1.
November 1 is the statutory deadline to announce the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), which uses third-quarter inflation data—including September’s CPI.[5][3][1]
The delay could impact the timing of the 2026 COLA announcement, although Social Security benefit payments will continue uninterrupted as they are funded through mandatory spending and not subject to shutdown delays.[6][7][8][9]
Social Security COLA Details
The COLA adjustment helps over 74 million Americans, including retired workers, disabled individuals, and survivors, keep pace with inflation.
For 2025, the COLA was 2.5%, a decrease from previous years due to moderating inflation.
Experts currently estimate a 2.7% to 2.8% COLA increase for 2026, based on inflation trends through August 2025 and pending the September CPI data.[10][11][12][13]
The final COLA figure will depend on the complete third-quarter CPI data and be officially announced after the BLS release.
Additional Notes For delayed inflation data
The September CPI data is crucial not only for the Social Security COLA but also for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions.
Data collection for September CPI was completed before the shutdown, but data processing and analysis were paused and now resumed at limited capacity.[2][3][14][5]
Some Social Security administrative services, such as earnings record updates and benefit verification, may be delayed until government operations resume fully.[7][6]
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