Government shutdown delays Social Security cost-of-living increase
The government shutdown has postponed the announcement of the 2024 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment to October 24, impacting millions of beneficiaries. Proposals for a revised calculation continue to evolve amid rising costs.
COLA announcement pushed to October 24
70.6 million people rely on Social Security
Projected COLA increase is 2.7%
Health care costs excluded from CPI
Majority struggle with basic expenses
Workforce cuts strain remaining employees
A lapse in federal funding has postponed the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement to October 24. The Bureau of Labor Statistics rescheduled the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) release to that date due to furloughs caused by the government shutdown.[1][2]
New Announcement Schedule
The Social Security Administration (SSA) will finalize and publish the COLA on October 24, replacing the original October 15 date. Mailed notices of adjusted benefits will arrive beginning in early December.[3][4]
Projected COLA Rates
Analysts project increases based on preliminary inflation data:
Source
Projected COLA
Average Benefit Increase
Senior Citizens League
2.7 percent
$54
AARP
2.8 percent
$56
Financial Forecasting Firm¹
2.6 percent
$52
¹Financial Forecasting Firm projection based on CPI-E scenario.[5][6][7]
Roughly 75 million beneficiaries—including retirees, disabled individuals, and dependents—rely on Social Security for income security.[8][9]
Calls for a Senior-Focused Index
Critics say the CPI-W undercounts expenses more common among older Americans, notably health care and housing. Legislation to adopt the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) stalled in the last Senate Finance Committee session.[2][10][11]
Trust Fund Solvency Forecast
The June 2025 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Report warns that combined trust funds will exhaust full-benefit reserves in 2034, one year sooner than prior estimates. At that time, revenues would cover only 81 percent of scheduled benefits.[12][13]
Agency Staffing and Service Impact
Budget constraints forced the SSA to cut over 7,000 staff this year, hampering claim processing and customer service. Call wait times have increased by 40 percent since January 2025.[14][3]
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