OPEC+ announced it will increase oil output by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in November. This decision reflects ongoing concerns about a potential oversupply in the market.
Modest increase amid oversupply concerns
The OPEC+ group has raised its oil output targets by over 2.7 million bpd this year, which represents about 2.5% of global oil demand. The November increase mirrors October’s modest adjustment as supply worries continue.
OPEC+ aims to regain market share from competitors, particularly U.S. shale producers, after years of production cuts.
Market impact and future outlook
Brent crude prices dropped below $65 per barrel, with analysts predicting a supply excess in the fourth quarter of this year and into 2026. This decline reflects slower demand and increased U.S. output.
Leading up to the decision, Russia and Saudi Arabia had differing views. Russia recommended a small increase due to difficulties in raising output from sanctions, while Saudi Arabia favored a much larger hike to exploit its spare capacity.
Expectations for the industry
Oil prices might rise following the announcement, with some analysts noting that the increase was cautious in response to market volatility. OPEC+ is balancing its approach between stability and gaining back market share.
The group previously peaked its output cuts at 5.85 million bpd and plans to unwind these cuts gradually. The next meeting will take place on November 2.
