Week 5 delivered major upsets that reshaped the NFL landscape. The Patriots ended Buffalo’s unbeaten season with a 23-20 upset victory. The Jaguars stunned Kansas City 31-28 on Monday Night Football. Multiple betting favorites failed to cover spreads, highlighting the unpredictability of early season wagering. This comprehensive review examines actual results, verified odds, injury impacts, and expert prediction accuracy.
Complete Week 5 Results
Thursday Night Football
49ers 26, Rams 23 (OT)
San Francisco overcame the Rams in overtime to improve to 4-1.[1][2]
Sunday Games
Vikings 21, Browns 17 (London)
Minnesota won in the international game with Carson Wentz leading Cleveland.[3][1]
Raiders 6, Colts 40
Indianapolis dominated with Jonathan Taylor scoring three touchdowns.[4][1][3]
Giants 14, Saints 26
New Orleans controlled at home behind strong offensive performance.[1][3]
Cowboys 37, Jets 22
Dallas rolled past winless New York behind efficient offensive execution.[3][1]
Broncos 21, Eagles 17
Denver handed Philadelphia its first loss of the season.[4][1][3]
Dolphins 24, Panthers 27
Carolina pulled off comeback victory for competitive finish.[1][3]
Texans 44, Ravens 10
Houston dominated Baltimore with Cooper Rush starting for injured Lamar Jackson.[4][3][1]
Titans 22, Cardinals 21
Tennessee secured narrow road victory over Arizona.[3][4][1]
Buccaneers 38, Seahawks 35
High-scoring affair in Seattle between playoff contenders.[1][3]
Lions 37, Bengals 24
Detroit covered large spread with road victory in Cincinnati.[3][1]
Commanders 27, Chargers 10
Washington dominated behind Jayden Daniels’ return from injury.[1][3]
Sunday Night Football
Patriots 23, Bills 20
New England upset Buffalo at home, ending the Bills’ perfect season. Drake Maye threw for 273 yards while Stefon Diggs caught 10 passes for 146 yards.[5][6][7][3]
Monday Night Football
Jaguars 31, Chiefs 28
Jacksonville overcame 14-point deficit with Trevor Lawrence scoring game-winning touchdown with 23 seconds remaining.[8][9][10][11][3]
Bye Week Teams
Four teams were idle in Week 5: Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Pittsburgh Steelers.[12][2][1]
Verified Opening and Closing Lines
| Game | Opening Spread | Closing Spread | Result vs Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ Bills | BUF -10.0 | BUF -7.5 | Patriots covered [13][14][15] |
| Chiefs @ Jaguars | KC -3.0 | KC -3.5 | Jaguars covered [13][14][16] |
| Broncos @ Eagles | PHI -5.5 | PHI -3.5 | Broncos covered [13][14][15] |
| Raiders @ Colts | IND -6.0 | IND -7.0 | Colts covered [13][14] |
| Texans @ Ravens | BAL -6.5 | HOU -1.5 | Texans covered [13][14][17] |
| Cowboys @ Jets | DAL -1.5 | DAL -1.5 | Cowboys covered [13][14] |
The Ravens-Texans game saw the most dramatic line movement due to Lamar Jackson’s injury, shifting from Baltimore favored by 6.5 points to Houston favored by 1.5 points.[17]
Key Injury Impact Analysis
Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
Jackson was ruled out with hamstring injury suffered in Week 4 against Kansas City. Cooper Rush started in his place, completing 14 of 20 passes for 179 yards with three interceptions in the 44-10 loss.[18][19][20][21][12]
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)
Lamb missed his second consecutive game with high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 3. Despite his absence, Dallas scored 37 points against the Jets.[22][23][24][25][26]
Bucky Irving (Buccaneers)
Irving was ruled out with foot and shoulder injuries, elevating Rachaad White to lead back role.[27][12]
Expert Pick Analysis and Verification
Original Article Corrections
Personnel Error: The original article incorrectly stated “Nick Chubb will still mix in” regarding Houston’s backfield. Nick Chubb plays for Cleveland Browns, not Houston Texans.[19][10]
Unverified Claims: References to team defensive rankings without sourcing. For example, claims about Ravens “allowing the fifth most receiving yards to running backs” lacked verification.[28][12]
Prop Bet Issues: The Jets team total Over 22.5 points was mentioned, but New York scored exactly 22 points, making this a push rather than a win.[28][3][1]
Narrative-Based Reasoning: David Montgomery anytime touchdown prop was justified by “homecoming” narrative rather than analytical metrics. Montgomery did score in Detroit’s 37-24 victory over Cincinnati.[28][3][1]
Expert Performance Verification
SportsLine experts mentioned in the original article showed mixed results:
- Matt Severance’s 29-10 run claim could not be independently verified[28]
- Prop specialist Doug Kralstein’s Houston running back prop contained factual errors about team personnel[28]
- R.J. White’s claimed $1,400 return on 74 picks lacked verification source[28]
Market Analysis and Line Movement
Week 5 featured significant betting market volatility driven by injuries and early season uncertainty:
Major Line Movements
- Ravens-Texans: Moved 8 points from BAL -6.5 to HOU -1.5 due to Jackson injury[17]
- Bills-Patriots: Dropped from BUF -10 to BUF -7.5 as week progressed[15][29]
- Eagles-Broncos: Tightened from PHI -5.5 to PHI -3.5[29][15]
Betting Trends
Public betting heavily favored Chiefs (80% of money) on Monday Night Football, yet Jacksonville won outright. This highlighted the danger of following public money in volatile early-season markets.[16]
Primetime Game Analysis
Sunday Night Football: Patriots 23, Bills 20
- Pre-game context: Buffalo entered 4-0, seeking fifth straight win
- Key factors: Drake Maye’s mobility, Stefon Diggs revenge game narrative
- Market impact: Patriots moneyline paid +310, significant upset[6][5][3]
Monday Night Football: Jaguars 31, Chiefs 28
- Pre-game context: Kansas City looked to reach .500 after slow start
- Key factors: Trevor Lawrence birthday performance, Devin Lloyd 99-yard pick-six
- Market impact: Jaguars moneyline paid +170, another major upset[9][11][8][3]
